The spread of advanced military technology to disruptive regimes and non-state actors remains a pressing global security concern. Patterns of illicit and state-sanctioned proliferation are reshaping the global arms landscape, forging new partnerships, enabling novel strategies, and revealing significant gaps in international export-control frameworks. Russia has increased its military cooperation with Iran and North Korea, raising concerns over missile and drone technology transfers and the potential rise of an ‘Axis of Upheaval’. In the Middle East, illicit technology flows to actors like the Houthis continue to fuel instability and enable non-state actors to project power far across their borders.
As part of the German Forum on Security Policy 2025, the IISS-Europe hosts a hybrid panel to discuss recent developments pertaining to the transfer of arms technology and dual-use goods to disruptive powers and non-state actors. Drawing on recent case studies and policy analysis, the discussion will examine strategic consequences and explore the effectiveness and limitations of current export-control regimes in responding to this evolving threat landscape.
Discussion:
- Fabian Hinz, Research Fellow for Defence and Military Analysis, IISS–Europe
- Wolf-Christian Paes, Senior Fellow for Armed Conflict, IISS–Europe
- Dr Maria Shagina, Senior Fellow, Diamond-Brown Economic Sanctions, Standards and Strategy, IISS–Europe
- Moderator: Dr Alexander K. Bollfrass, Head of Strategy, Technology and Arms Control, IISS–Europe
Date & Time: Monday, 5 May | 15:00–16:30 p.m. (CET)
Format: Panel discussion at the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS)
Location: BAKS, Ossietzkystr. 45, 13187 Berlin, Livestream available online
Language: English
Participation: livestream available on www.baks.bund.de | for on-site participation please contact IISS-Europe